Possible scenario
Recovery Bottlenecks Worsen
25% Chance
The hurricane exposes unresolved weaknesses in federal disaster administration after prior recovery delays. Local governments, homeowners, and insurers face slower reimbursements, extending economic disruption in damaged counties.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Utilities -1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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