Possible scenario
Isolated Cockpit Incident
45% Chance
Investigators conclude the attack was an isolated interpersonal or behavioral incident rather than a broader security breach. Captain Smit Machchhar remains stable, the injured crew recover, and Flydubai resumes normal operations with limited reputational damage.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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