Possible scenario
Courts Narrow Ban
25% Chance
Licensed operators and trade groups challenge the order on acquired-rights, due-process, and economic-freedom grounds. Brazil's Supreme Federal Court may avoid a direct political clash with Lula while still granting temporary relief to companies licensed under the 2023 law.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Tickers
- FLUT+3.3%
- SGHC+2.5%
- GENI+1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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