Possible scenario
Ban Mostly Holds
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Lula's order remains the binding rule while regulators, courts, and operators negotiate implementation details. Brazil's executive branch can move quickly through the Finance Ministry, Anatel, and the Central Bank to choke off licensed online betting even if lawsuits continue.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.3%
- Technology -0.3%
- Finance -0.3%
Tickers
- FLUT-4.0%
- SGHC-3.4%
- SRAD-1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.