Security Channel Advances

Iran's interior minister uses the Doha visit to build a security and crisis-management channel with Qatar, complementing Qatar's transfer of the U.S. nuclear roadmap. This is the most likely path because both Doha and Tehran have incentives to prevent another attack on Qatari territory while keeping U.S.-Iran diplomacy alive.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.