Russia Retaliates Militarily

Moscow could respond to the loss of helicopters and damage to a strategic export hub with a larger strike package against Ukrainian ports, power assets, or drone-production sites. This would be an escalation inside the existing war rather than a new conflict, so the immediate market shock remains meaningful but not crisis-scale.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.