Possible scenario
CDU Firewall Tested
20% Chance
AfD's softer EU stance increases pressure on the CDU and CSU to justify the firewall against cooperation. Friedrich Merz maintains the federal red line, but state-level arithmetic after AfD gains makes tactical cooperation more likely in committees, budgets or parliamentary presidencies.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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