Legal Diplomatic Resolution
−0.1%
A less disruptive path is that the case becomes primarily a criminal and disciplinary matter, with limited diplomatic retaliation. Russia denies involvement, NATO avoids public escalation, and the market impact fades quickly.
What it moves
- Technology−0.1%
- Industrials+0.1%
- Market volatility
- 10-year Treasury yield
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.