Possible scenario
Wider Strike Cycle
22% Chance
The U.S. expands from point defense to broader suppression of Iranian coastal missile, drone, and radar assets. Iran retaliates through the IRGC Navy and regional proxies, making this a wider military exchange but still short of a formal war declaration.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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