Possible scenario
Contained Naval Exchange
40% Chance
The most likely path is a sharp but bounded naval confrontation in and around the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz. Washington and Tehran both signal resolve, but neither side immediately chooses a full-scale strike campaign because energy-market damage and military losses could become difficult to control.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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