Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
20% Chance
A less likely but material risk is that the Houthi movement answers Saudi strikes and U.K. support with attacks on Saudi infrastructure, shipping, or energy assets. This would shift the story from limited military assistance to a broader Gulf security shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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