Possible scenario
Broader Western Coalition
25% Chance
A plausible escalation is that the U.K. deployment becomes the first step in a wider allied support package for Saudi air operations and air defense. This would still likely stop short of declared Western combat operations, but markets would price a higher risk of prolonged conflict around the Gulf and Red Sea.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.