Possible scenario
Regulatory Review Deepens
20% Chance
The FAA determines that the early deorbit or a related in-flight anomaly requires a formal mishap review or license modification. This would echo prior Starship test-flight pauses, delaying the next launch while SpaceX documents corrective actions.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
Tickers
- SPCX-6.1%
- RKLB+1.7%
- VSAT+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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