Possible scenario
October Hike Repriced
40% Chance
Kazimir's comments push markets to treat the October meeting as live again, despite Lagarde's attempt to downplay entrenched inflation risks. The Governing Council remains divided, but hawks regain influence because inflation momentum has recently surprised to the upside.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Utilities -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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