Possible scenario
Doves Contain Message
30% Chance
Other ECB officials emphasize data dependence and prevent Kazimir's comments from becoming the Governing Council's dominant signal. Markets continue to see another hike as possible, but not unavoidable.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Utilities +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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