Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, China, and the European Union press both sides into a temporary maritime pause to prevent a wider war and protect energy flows. This outcome is plausible because Iran may want leverage rather than indefinite closure, while Washington wants shipping restored without a land war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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