Possible scenario
Direct Military Escalation
30% Chance
The rising daily toll forces Washington to expand strikes beyond immediate self-defense, targeting IRGC launchers, radars, and command nodes along the Iranian coast. Tehran retaliates, but both sides still try to avoid a declared war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -6.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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