Possible scenario
Convoy Stabilization
35% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, France, and regional partners expand naval escorts and air cover, reducing the pace of successful Iranian attacks without ending the conflict. This is the most likely near-term path because Washington has incentives to restore shipping flows while avoiding an immediate full-scale war with Iran.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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