Possible scenario
Reform Is Diluted
25% Chance
The Chamber of Deputies or a joint congressional negotiation softens the Senate-approved measure after pressure from the National Confederation of Industry and retail groups. The core political win for labor remains, but effective cost increases are reduced.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- JBS+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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