Possible scenario
Employer Backlash Intensifies
20% Chance
Large employers and industry federations argue the Senate measure raises labor costs too quickly and conflicts with collective-bargaining principles created after the 2017 labor reform. The legal and lobbying campaign does not immediately kill the reform, but it raises uncertainty around compliance and cost pass-through.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Business Services -0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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