Possible scenario
Contempt Battle Escalates
20% Chance
Evidence emerges that some ads continued airing after the court deadline, prompting the judge to examine whether officials violated the injunction. The case becomes a sharper separation-of-powers confrontation involving the White House, agency counsel, and the Justice Department.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.