Possible scenario
Russia Escalates Pressure
20% Chance
Moscow may interpret Zelensky's freeze signal as evidence that Ukraine and its backers want a pause more urgently than Russia does. Putin could escalate military pressure to improve leverage before committing to any ceasefire text.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Utilities -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- LMT+1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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