Possible scenario
Politics Reshape Deal
15% Chance
Even if battlefield diplomacy improves, domestic politics in Kyiv, Washington and European capitals could change the shape or timing of any agreement. Zelensky must avoid appearing to legitimize Russian annexations, while the U.S. and EU must decide how much security backing and sanctions relief to offer.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
- RTX-0.2%
- LMT+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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