Possible scenario
Contained Diplomatic Stalemate
30% Chance
The peace momentum proves real but insufficient to overcome sovereignty, sanctions and security-guarantee disputes. Fighting remains intense but largely within the existing pattern, keeping markets from pricing either a durable peace or a major escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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