Possible scenario
Ceasefire Framework Advances
35% Chance
Zelensky's willingness to discuss a battle-line freeze creates the first credible diplomatic opening since the failed land-for-peace proposals. The most likely constructive path is a limited ceasefire architecture that avoids formal recognition of Russian annexations while letting both sides claim they preserved core principles.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
- Finance +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Tickers
- LMT-1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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