Possible scenario
Energy Route Disruption
20% Chance
Iran uses maritime pressure to raise the economic cost of U.S. and Israeli military action without immediately attacking major U.S. bases. The main transmission channel is oil, insurance, shipping, and Gulf infrastructure rather than equity losses alone.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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