Possible scenario
Direct U.S.-Iran Exchange
25% Chance
Iranian attacks produce a U.S. military response against IRGC missile, drone, or command facilities. Both sides still have incentives to avoid regime-change war, but the risk of miscalculation rises sharply after direct U.S. and Iranian fire.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -5.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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