Contained Iranian Retaliation

Iran follows through with attacks on U.S.-linked assets but tries to avoid mass U.S. casualties that would trigger a larger American campaign. Strikes are likely concentrated on exposed facilities in Iraq, Syria, the Gulf, or maritime targets, with Oman and Qatar keeping deconfliction channels open.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.