Possible scenario
Smuggling Networks Persist
36% Chance
The convictions deliver symbolic justice for the 31 deaths, but do not by themselves dismantle the broader Channel-smuggling economy. Organizers adapt by changing launch sites, recruiters, payment channels and boat-supply routes around northern France and Belgium.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.