Possible scenario
Legal Aftermath Expands
21% Chance
The criminal convictions become the foundation for appeals, civil claims and renewed scrutiny of rescue coordination during the 2021 disaster. The process remains legally significant but has little direct financial-market relevance.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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