Possible scenario
Protracted Brinkmanship
34% Chance
Both sides keep maximalist public positions, but avoid a direct exchange of fire. The Strait remains severely constrained, insurance and routing costs rise, and traders keep a geopolitical premium in crude prices.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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