Possible scenario
Limited Military Escalation
22% Chance
A seizure attempt, missile radar lock, or small-boat confrontation turns the standoff kinetic. Both governments still have incentives to avoid full war, but even a limited clash would lift crude prices and volatility sharply over the next trading sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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