Possible scenario
Lazarus case hardens
18% Chance
Investigators strengthen the link between the exploit and Lazarus Group, shifting the story from a bounty negotiation to a sanctions and law-enforcement matter. That reduces the probability of a friendly return and increases compliance pressure on exchanges and bridges.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.