Possible scenario
Regional Escalation
20% Chance
A miscalculation or deliberate Iranian strike turns the blockade into a broader military confrontation. This remains less likely than contained enforcement, but the presence of trapped tankers, U.S. naval assets, and anti-ship missiles creates a high-risk environment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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