Possible scenario
Brokered De-escalation
25% Chance
A diplomatic channel through Oman, Qatar, or the United Nations produces a limited framework to reduce maritime risk. Iran would not receive full export relief immediately, but even a monitored corridor or renewed nuclear contact would remove some war premium from oil.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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