Possible scenario
Blockade Holds Firm
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continued U.S. naval blockade that keeps Iranian crude exports effectively frozen without an immediate diplomatic breakthrough. Washington maintains pressure while Iran avoids a step that would guarantee a much broader U.S.-led military response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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