Rhetorical Deterrence Holds

Russia uses the threat to deter deeper European weapons production and long-range missile support for Ukraine, but avoids direct action on NATO territory. This is the most likely path because attacking European factories would risk Article 4 or Article 5 escalation while rhetoric still imposes political and insurance costs.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.