Possible scenario
Republican Backlash Mobilizes
29% Chance
Republicans reframe the disruptions as evidence of disorder and anti-Trump activism, energizing conservative voters who had been less engaged. The Paxton and Abbott campaigns lean into law-and-order messaging and regain some of the advantage lost in recent polling.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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