Possible scenario
Democratic Momentum Builds
34% Chance
The repeated disruptions become a visible symbol of Republican vulnerability in Texas rather than a one-night protest story. Democrats use the San Antonio rally footage to reinforce polling that shows Greg Abbott and Ken Paxton facing unusually competitive races.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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