Possible scenario
Floor Fight Proceeds
25% Chance
If Republicans hold or nearly hold the House, Burchett's proposal could become a floor-management problem for GOP leadership. A narrow majority would make even a legally weak seating challenge relevant to organizing the chamber and electing a speaker.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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