Possible scenario
Gray-Zone Pressure
30% Chance
Russia continues probing the NATO supply route with drones, electronic warfare, sabotage attempts, or cyber operations while staying below the threshold of an overt attack. This keeps the Jasionka hub operating but raises the risk premium around eastern Europe.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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