Possible scenario
Air Incident
15% Chance
A Russian drone, missile, or aircraft creates a more serious confrontation near Polish airspace. Both sides still have incentives to avoid a NATO-Russia war, but the risk of miscalculation rises sharply.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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