Possible scenario
Phased Increase Approved
44% Chance
The Liberals move cautiously, raising permanent-resident admissions while keeping tighter controls on temporary residents. This is the most likely path because it responds to population decline without fully reversing the 2024 reduction in immigration targets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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