Possible scenario
Housing Backlash Dilutes
24% Chance
Public concern over rent, shelter capacity, and municipal services forces Carney to soften the increase. The final plan still raises admissions but adds housing-linked triggers and a slower ramp-up.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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