Possible scenario
Runoff Or Deadlock
14% Chance
A 2-point polling lead is close enough that a third-party vote or counting dispute could prevent a clean resolution. This path is less likely than a direct Jackson or Raffensperger win but realistic in a polarized, high-turnout Georgia contest.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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