Possible scenario
Raffensperger Comeback
34% Chance
Raffensperger still has a plausible path because Jackson's lead is only 2 points and polling error in Georgia has often been decisive. A Republican recovery would likely come from high rural turnout, improved margins among independents, and a late consolidation of Kemp-aligned voters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Utilities +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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