Possible scenario
More posts surface
18% Chance
Opposition researchers and reporters find additional social-media material that makes the initial story look less isolated. The campaign shifts from a one-day embarrassment to a broader vetting problem for the Minnesota GOP.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.