Possible scenario
Police Crackdown
26% Chance
The Interior Ministry responds to the 700 police injuries with tougher crowd-control orders, more mobile police deployments and prefectural bans near schools. The approach restores some order but risks extending anger if additional injuries occur.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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