Possible scenario
Negotiated De-escalation
38% Chance
The government treats the police injury toll as a political warning and moves quickly to separate student anger from wider public-sector austerity protests. Education Ministry talks with teacher unions and parent groups reduce the number of blockaded schools within days.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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