Possible scenario
Austerity Strike Wave
22% Chance
School protests become the visible front of a wider anti-austerity movement against the 2027 budget. Public-sector unions coordinate with transport and hospital workers, increasing economic disruption and complicating the government's parliamentary timetable.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Finance -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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